International Inflation Rates

Global inflation remains stubbornly high. The key driver to reducing inflation has been falling commodity prices, but the decline has leveled off.

Commodities are raw materials or primary agricultural products that can be bought and sold, typically used as inputs in the production of other goods or services. They are often categorized into two broad types: hard commodities and soft commodities. Hard commodities include natural resources like oil, gold, and metals, while soft commodities typically refer to agricultural products or livestock, such as wheat, coffee, and cattle.

Commodity prices can vary widely depending on numerous factors such as supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, economic trends, and changes in technology or consumer preferences.

According to the World Bank, commodity prices are expected to decline by only 3 per cent this year and 4 per cent in 2025. This means interest rates are likely to remain higher than currently expected this year and next. This will make further reductions in inflation challenging. A major commodity shock could impact reductions and even further fuel inflation.

Inflation in some of the largest economies has slowed but is not yet back to the levels seen before the pandemic.

In summary the latest inflation rate trends in the largest economies:

• Australia: 3.6% in March 2024, down from 4.1% in December 2023.
• Brazil: 3.7% in April 2024 down from 3.9% in March 2024, and 4.5% in February 2024.
• Canada: 2.9% in March 2024, up from 2.8% in February.
• China 0.1% in March 2024, down from 0.7%.
• France: 2.2% in April 2024, down from 2.3% in March 2024, and 2.9% in February 2024.
• Germany: 2.2% in April 2024, steady from 2.2% in March 2024, and down from 2.5% in February 2024.
• Hong Kong 2% in March 2024, down from 2.1% in February.
• India 4.9% in March 2024, down from 5.1% in February 2024.
• Indonesia: 3% in April 2024, down from 3.1% in March 2024, up from 2.8% in February 2024.
• Italy: 0.9% in April 2024, down from 1.2% in March 2024, up from 0.8% in February 2024.
• Japan: 2.7% in March 2024, down from 2.8% in February 2024.
• Saudi Arabia: 1.6% in March 2024, down from 1.8% in February.
• Singapore 2.7% in March 2024, down from 3.4% in February 2024.
• South Africa: 5.3% in March 2024, down from 5.6% in February 2024.
• South Korea: 2.9% in April 2024, down from 3.1% in March 2024, and 3.1% in February 2024.
• Spain: 3.3% in April 2024, up from 3.2% in March 2024, and 2.8% in February 2024.
• Taiwan 1.95% in April 2024, down from 2.1% in March 2024, and 3.1% in February 2024.
• Turkey: 69.8% in April 2024, up from 68.5% in March 2024 and 67.1% in February 2024.
• United Arab Emirates: 3.4% in February 2024, down from 3.6%.
• United Kingdom: 3.2% in March 2024, down from 3.4%.
• United States: 3.5% in March 2024, up from 3.2%.